The long walk to prosperity

• Published date: 08 August 2023
• Publication title: Post

What a contrast to the doom- mongering headlines on South Africa. Zimbabwe-esque comparisons of the country’s downfall are tempting. But this country has an answer for every setback

I am going to stick my neck out and say South Africa will not go the way of Zimbabwe. South Africa is a far cry from its northern neighbour breadbasket-turned basket-case-turned dictatorship. South Africa ranks 7.05/10 on the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index. Zimbabwe ranks 2.92.

That South Africa is in a worse state now than it was in 1994 is undeniable. But apartheid was a false starting point. The current slump is early in the life of the young democracy. It should be seen as a twist in what I take the liberty to call the “Long Walk to Prosperity”.

Backdrop

Africa expert Richard Dowden states that the South African story carried the hopes of the human race in 1994. Perhaps the expectation that political freedom would quickly translate into economic opportunity was simply too much.

The prosperous future South Africa was set for in 1994 did not materialise. Instead, we hear of failing state enterprises, blackouts, violent crime and the global top spot for economic inequality. This is a tragedy.

Responsibility for the unnecessary hardship rests squarely with the governing ANC. Complacent, its failure to deliver for ordinary South Africans may have it unseated in next year’s national election. This is new territory.

The pessimists fear the bad situation may get worse, with the ANC having to team up with the hot-headed, land-grabbing EFF.

Conversely, the optimists say a coalition of smaller parties will form a government and put things right. Strong institutions will resist backsliding into chaos. South Africa will, once again, become a beacon of hope.

The Long Walk to Prosperity. Realistic creativity on reimaging South African fortunes. South Africa 3.0.

It is 2040. South Africa is prospering, again. How did events unfold?

It was 2029 when the ANC was finally unseated, not 2024.

Political analyst Frans Cronje correctly predicted in 2023 that the ANC would, in fact, hang on until the 2029 election, striking confidence and support arrangements with allies outside the EFF to keep itself in power for another five years.

This allowed a broad church of smaller parties, which previously lacked critical mass, to come together in proper unity and organisation. South Africa’s tremendous diversity always bred healthy disagreement, preventing any one party sliding into...