Protest injuries : A situational analysis of injurious protests in Gauteng

• Author: Pascal Richardson,Lu-Anne Swart,Rajen Govender,Mohamed Seedat
• DOI: 10.17159/2413-3108/2022/vn71a12891
• Published date: 01 November 2022
• Date: 01 November 2022
• Pages: 61-73

2 – 61

SA CRIME QUARTERLY NO. 71 • 2022

Protest injuries

A situational analysis of

injurious protests in Gauteng

South African

In this article, we investigate contextual and situational circumstances of protest events that record

injurious outcomes for civilians and examine how these differ from protests which do not record such

outcomes. Using the IRIS database, we examine how contextual factors, including protest period,

protest location, reason for protest, and situational factors, such as type of protest, damage to

property, arrests and police response contribute to civilian injury. Using logistic regression analysis,

it was found that: 1) protest-related injuries were more frequent during the late-2000s than the

2010–15 period; 2) protest location was not a signif‌icant predictor of protest injury; 3) protests which

recorded arrests and damage to property were more likely to report injurious outcomes; and

4) the addition of an aggressive police response was signif‌icant in determining protestor injury

outcomes. Our f‌indings have implications for public policing strategies, highlighting the role of

different modalities of police response in the mitigation or escalation of injuries at protest events.

CR I ME QUA RT E R LY

No. 71 | 2022

Introduction

South Africa has been described as a “protest

nation” and the “protest capital of the world”,

with research indicating that protest action

is increasing in frequency.2 Although protest

action in South Africa is mostly non-violent,

protest events are sometimes accompanied by

Pascal Richardson, Lu-Anne Swart, Rajen Govender and Mohamed Seedat1

richap@unisa.ac.za

swartl@unisa.ac.za

govender@iafrica.com

seedama@unisa.ac.za

https://doi.org/10.17159/2413-3108/2022/vn71a12891