Polling and power: How Western backing may influence South African elections

• Published date: 06 May 2024
• Publication title: Mail & Guardian: Web Edition Articles (Johannesburg, South Africa)

The scrutiny surrounding the accuracy and impartiality of election polls in South Africa reveals possible deep-seated issues of Western influence and conflicts of interest, fundamentally questioning the role these polls play in the democratic process

Western-backed organisations such as IPSOS, the Social Research Foundation and Brenthurst Foundation allegedly have been instrumental in shaping political narratives, and are accused of skewing public opinion to favour specific outcomes. This manipulation is not just a local concern, but mirrors global scepticism towards polling practices where similar patterns of inaccuracy and bias have been identified.

One glaring example of potential conflict of interest in South African polling is the engagement of Victory Research by the Social Research Foundation. Notably, Victory Research's managing partner holds a significant role in the Democratic Alliance (DA), raising serious concerns about the impartiality of the polls conducted by the firm. This arrangement was highlighted in a report by IOL News, which emphasised the inherent risk of bias when pollsters have direct political affiliations.

Internationally, the reliability of election polls has been increasingly challenged. A study from Berkeley Haas pointed out a significant discrepancy in poll accuracy, finding that despite a 95% confidence claim, the actual accuracy hovered around only 60%. This substantial margin of error could severely mislead both public opinion and political strategy, suggesting that the polls might be more about crafting perceptions than reflecting them.

New political parties like ActionSA have voiced frustrations with how traditional polling underestimates their electoral impact. Despite predictions to the contrary, ActionSA's performance in elections has consistently exceeded poll-based expectations, indicating a systemic undervaluation of emerging political...