Leaders and Tenures in Sub‐Saharan Africa

• Published date: 01 September 2020
• Date: 01 September 2020
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12255
• Author: Carolyn Chisadza

South African Journal of Economics Vol. 88:3 September 2020

doi: 10.1111/saje.12255

323

© 2020 Economic Society of South Africa

LEADERS AND TENURES IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

CAROLYN CHISADZA*,†

Abstract

While there has been extensive evidence provided on the varying effects of leaders’ extended

tenures on economic growth, political institutions and conflict, little attention in the empirical

literature has been given to the determinants that may contribute to long tenures. Without being

cognisant of these underlying factors, any efforts aimed at limiting tenures to progress economic

development and democratic institutions will have little effect, as evidenced by several leaders’

attempts to subvert constitutional laws in this regard. Using panel data analysis for sub-Saharan

African countries between 1960 and 2015, this study looks at the likely determinants (both at

individual and country level) that can increase or decrease political survival. The preliminary

results suggest that at an individual level, the leader’s age, political career and rebel experience

increase the likelihood of extended tenure, while the leader’s education reduces the probability

of extended tenure. At a country level, the country’s wealth is likely to increase tenures, while

increased conflict and strong institutions decrease a leader’s tenure.

JEL Classification: I25, C23, O43, 055

Keywords: Institutions, education, panel data, sub-Saharan Africa

1. INTRODUCTION

The recent Afrobarometer survey indicates that over three quarters of citizens in 34

African countries are in favour of two term limits for presidents (Dulani, 2015). Yet this

sentiment has gone unheeded by long-standing leaders in Africa where some have served

for over 20 years and are still in power, or have had to be forcibly removed. Examples

include Presidents dos Santos in Angola (37 years), Campaore in Burkina Faso (27 years),

Mobutu in The Democratic Republic of Congo (32 years), Biya in Cameroon (34 years),

Mbasogo in Equatorial Guinea (37 years), Bongo in Gabon (42 years), Al-Bashir in

Sudan (27 years), Eyadema in Togo (38 years), Museveni in Uganda (30 years) and

Mugabe in Zimbabwe (36 years). During the 1990s, which was the period of significant

improvements in sub-Saharan Africa in terms of growth and institutions, most reforming

countries inserted term limit clauses in their constitutions (Dulani, 2015). According to

a report by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (2017), only 14 out of 54 African

countries1 do not have two-term limits in their constitutions. However, over the years

leaders in sub-Saharan Africa have extended their terms of office indefinitely, as indicated

by the increasing trend observed in Figure 1. Of the 40 African countries with two-term

1 Cape Verde, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Lesotho, Mauritius,

Morocco, Seychelles, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Swaziland.

* Corresponding author: Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Lynnwood Road,

Pretoria, 0002, RSA. E-mail: carolyn.chisadza@up.ac.za

† Department of Economics, University of Pretoria

South African Journal

of Economics

324 South African Journal of Economics Vol. 88:3 September 2020

© 2020 Economic Society of South Africa

limit clauses, 16 of them had leaders attempt to modify or eliminate the term limits with

10 successful attempts2 (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 2017).

By 2012, at least 30 leaders had tried (some succeeding) to extend their presidential

term limits, either getting courts to repeal or amend the clauses. Rarely have they va-

cated office after free elections, instead threats of coups or actual coups have been the

most successful means to date of removing strongmen from their positions (e.g. President

Campaore in Burkina Faso had to be forcibly removed from power in 2014, an attempted

coup in Burundi was unsuccessful in discouraging President Nkurunziza from extend-

ing his term in office in 2015, a successful military overtake finally managed to topple

President Mugabe in 2017). While President Kabila of the Democratic Republic of Congo

(DRC) clung to power to the detriment of his country, it took the intervention of armed

forces from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries to re-

move President Jammeh of the Gambia from office after his opponent defeated him at the

elections. Such violations of tenure limits reverse democratic gains and are a cause of con-

flict within countries, not to mention the possible adverse effects on policy outcomes such

as investing in health, education, and physical capital. These effects in turn can delay eco-

nomic growth in the region. This is on the back of Zimbabwe’s collapsed economy during

Mugabe’s tenure, the DRC’s rising inflation during Kabila’s tenure, and the lack of foreign

currency in Sudan during Al-bashir’s tenure (Felter, 2019), to name a few examples.

2 Succesful attempts at modifying or eliminating two-term limits: Togo (Eyadema, 2002), Gabon

(Bongo, 2003), Uganda (Museveni, 2005), Chad (Deby, 2005), Cameroon (Biya, 2008), Djibouti

(Guellah, 2010), Rwanda (Kagame, 2015), Burundi (Nkurunziza, 2015), Republic of Congo

(Nguesso, 2015), DRC (Kabila, 2016).

Figure 1. Average number of years in leadership role

Source: Archigos dataset v4.1, March 2016. [Colour figure can be viewed at

wileyonlinelibrary.com]

0510 15

ave. no. of yearsinpower

1960 19802000 2020

year