Ipsos survey: voters unimpressed with ANC as election nears

• Published date: 26 April 2024
• Author: Luyolo Mkentane
• Publication title: Business Day: Web Edition Articles (Johannesburg, South Africa)

The survey was released on Friday, a day before the country marks the 30th anniversary of the democratic dispensation and is in line with several other surveys which show support for the ANC could fall below 50% for the first time since 1994. This could force the governing party to enter into a coalition with smaller parties

The latest Ipsos survey is based on the views of 2,545 registered voters who were interviewed by "trained Ipsos interviewers" in their homes and in their home languages. The interviews were conducted from March 9 to April 15 in all provinces, including settlements in rural areas.

Ipsos said the results were weighted and projected using the Electoral Commission of SA (IEC) registration figures which show "27,698,201 South Africans are registered to vote in the 2024 elections".

"All sample surveys are subject to a margin of error, determined by sample size, sampling methodology and response rate. The sample error for this sample at a 95% confidence level is a maximum of plus or minus 1.9%," Ipsos said.

According to the latest survey, ANC support could fall to 40.2%. This is down from the 40.5% it polled on February 6, and the 43% it polled on October 27, 2023.

The DA, the country's official opposition, polled at 21.9% — up from the 20.5% on February 6, and 20% of October 2023.

The EFF, SA's thirdlargest political party, could receive 11.5% of the vote, down from 19.6% in February and 18% in October.

The Umkhonto weSizwe (MK) party led by former president Jacob Zuma could receive 11.5% of voter share. There are no figures for the party in February and October 2023.

The IFP polled at 4.4% (February: 4.9% and October: 5%); ActionSA 3.4% (February: 4.3% and October: 4%); Freedom Front Plus 1.8% (February: 2.1% and October: 2%); and other parties 8.4% (February: 8.1% and October: 8%).

The survey found the ANC is struggling to impress votes and that its support base was concentrated in rural areas.

"Nationally, only 38% think that the ANC will live up to their election promises and consequently support for the ruling party is well below 50%."

Ipsos noted the DA was managing to attract the support of about "a fifth of the electorate", while the formation of the MK party halted advances the EFF had made in recent years — "mainly in KwaZuluNatal (KZN) — with some former EFF...