Eskom predicts stage two load-shedding for winter

• Published date: 26 April 2024
• Publication title: Mail & Guardian: Web Edition Articles (Johannesburg, South Africa)

This was the optimistic assessment made by Eskom's group chief executive, Dan Marokane, at the release of its state of the system and winter outlook on Friday

"In the extreme case where the unreliability increases, that component may occasionally go to stage five but we really think that on the basis of what we see, the performance of the fleet, load-shedding will stay within stage two," Maroka told a media briefing at its Megawatt Park headquarters in Johannesburg.

The winter forecast was made in anticipation of the unplanned capacity loss factor (UCLF) — the rate at which generating units break down and do not perform optimally — reaching 14 000 megawatts during winter, which is down from the anticipated 15 000MW during the same period last year, he said.

Although the reduction may look minimal, it is crucial for managing the intensity of load-shedding, Marokane noted.

"What is really important as we go into this season's forecast is that the base level for UCLF number is lower by a 1000MW. When you understand the capacity that we have, it does not look like a big number but when you actually understand the implications in terms of the levels of load-shedding, being able to bank that capacity is an important aspect."

He said Eskom has been working hard to lower the UCLF. "When you look at the time period between the last winter and now, you can actually see the reduction in unplanned losses — a 9% drop. It is mostly coming from the priority stations that were targeted as focal points."

Eskom also reaped the benefits of the early return of the four Kusile power station units that...