complexities of coups in africa From combating jihadists to fighting juntas

• Published date: 09 September 2023
• Publication title: Independent on Saturday

The July 26 coup in Niger is not an isolated event. Rather, it represents the recent resurgence of military coups that have plagued Africa, especially West Africa and Sudan. Since 2020, Africa has recorded seven successful coups and three unsuccessful coups. Some of these have occurred in the same countries notably, Mali and Burkina Faso

The resurgence of military coups is rooted in a combination of triggers and proximate and structural factors that require examination.

Typically, official condemnations and the suspensions of membership from the African Union (AU) and relevant regional economic communities (RECs) have often characterised regional responses. The recent coup in Niger marked a slight departure from the customary responses from regional organisations.

On July 28, Ecowas (the Economic Community of West African States) under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of Nigeria issued a com- munique condemning the coup in Niger. Ecowas not only expressed a rejection of the coup but unprecedentedly gave the coup plotters an ultimatum of one week to restore constitutional order.

In a similar vein, the AU Peace and Security Council also expressed its rejection of the coup and gave a timeline of 15 days to restore constitutional order. By August 11, Ecowas issued a further communique prioritising the peaceful resolution of the crisis but also authorising the activation of its Standby Force to restore constitutional order in Niger. Beyond the uncertain outcomes of responses by regional and international institutions as well as bilateral partners, the latest manifestation of coups especially in West Africa, calls for a deeper reflection.

The in-depth analysis presented in UNDP’s Soldiers and Citizens report sheds some light on the multi- dimensional factors, which could create coup risks.

Triggers could be events – at the domestic, regional, or international levels – which could sufficiently shape, drive or become a tipping point for coups. In recent times, the death of a president, and behind-the-scenes power struggles intensified by geo-political considerations could contribute to triggers.

Proximate factors highlight the broader challenges in Africa’s political landscape. The failure of leaders, even those who are democratically elected, to meet citizens’ needs and aspirations further exacerbates the situation.

When examining the structural and institutional issues that contribute to coup susceptibility, the historical involvement of military...